Writes Roger Cliff, Washington can't ignore China's emergence as a military power that could face the United States in a confrontation, most likely over the explosive issue of Taiwan.
Although still largely equipped with weapons based on 1950s-era Soviet designs, China's armed
forces are fielding increasing numbers of modern aircraft, warships, missiles and tanks. These
include: the J-10, a fighter jet comparable in capability to the U.S. F-16; the Luyang-class
destroyer, comparable in capability to U.S. Aegis ships; the HQ-9, a new class of nuclear attack
submarine; a surface-to-air missile system comparable to the U.S. Patriot system; the Type 98
tank, comparable in capability to the main battle tanks of Western countries; and short-range
ballistic missiles of increasingly lethal accuracy.
China is also working hard to improve military training and the quality of personnel in its armed
forces.
But China has not yet inbested in the systems needed to make her a world power: aircraft carriers, heavy bombers, long-range amphibious ships and military transport aircraft, and a constellation of surveillance and communications satellites with global coverage.
He estimates that 20 years from now China may be the dominant power in East Asia, and the U.S. would be hard-pressed to defeat a Chinese attack on Taiwan. (Source: Roger Cliff, Los Angeles Times, August 7, 2005).