In an article published in Taipei Times, June 27, and released in PacNet, no. 28, of Pacific Forum CSIS, July 3, Randall Schriver, former deputy assistant secretary of state for East Asia, said that the U.S. will not support Taiwanese independence referendum. He gave three categories of referendum: a reference that relates to governance, a referendum that addresses independence and/or sovereignty, and a referendum that seeks UN membership under the name of Taiwan.
He considers the U.S. position on Taiwan is pro-Taiwan, not anti-China, and pro-democracy, but anti-independence.
The U.S. would oppose the independence referendum on the grounds that it would be inconsistence with the non-support for independence. The referendum to seek UN memberships is highly symbolic and has no change of success, because China holds a veto.
Scarier suggests that what should the U.S. do in response to proposed referendums. In his view, the U.S. should not oppose them outright, but "encourage Taiwan to take steps that will truly strengthen its democracy and improve the quality of governance. . . should also remind Beijing that Washington supports democracy in Taiwan, including support for democratic methods such a conducting referendums. . . urge Beijing to show restraint (an expression of public sentiment is hardly a causu belli), and remind China that is overall posture toward Taiwan, which is characterized by missile deployments and pressure on Taiipei's government, is doing more to drive Taiwanese away rather than attract them to better relations with China [and] finally, Washington should encourage leaders in Taiwan to consider its broader interest in bettering relations with the U.S. vs. whatever short-term gain might come from holding a symbolic referendum."