In an article, "China's Leaders Deadlocked Over Succession," in The New York Times (Oct 5, 2007), Joseph Kahn reports the uncertainty of choosing new leaders after Hu Jintao. The economic overheating and talk of military action to keep Taiwan from moving toward legal independence have complicated the ruling party's already delicate internal succession process.
The Communist Party plans to convene a congress on Oct. 15 to ratify a slate of leaders who will serve under Mr. Hu through 2012. But party officials say Mr. Hu and his still-powerful predecessor, Jiang Zemin, have yet to reach a consensus on the leadership lineup.
On the Taiwan issue, top officials have issued fresh warnings that China may take military action if Chen Shui-bian, the president of Taiwan, follows through with his plan to hold a referendum on whether Taiwan should apply to join the United Nations under the name Taiwan rather than the Republic of China. Chinese leaders view the referendum as a backdoor attempt to sever Taiwan's remaining ties to mainland China, which they claim would set off a military response.
Party officials say that Mr. Hu intends to make Taiwan a focus of the coming congress. They say he may be seeking to garner support for using force if Mr. Chen does not back down. But he also may hope the Taiwan issue will unify the party around his leadership at a time when he faces political pressure from Mr. Jiang on domestic matters.
Arguably the most important function of the congress, the first in five years, will be to select someone to replace Mr. Hu. Two provincial party leaders, Li Keqiang, 52, the party secretary of Liaoning Province in northeastern China, and Xi Jinping, 54, the newly appointed party boss of Shanghai, are seen as contenders to join the Politburo Standing Committee and take over the most senior positions five years from now.